Guide

How the Tims Hockey Challenge Works

The Tim Hortons NHL Hockey Challenge is a free-to-play game in the Tims app that runs alongside the NHL regular season. This page explains the rules as we understand them and how our Hockey Challenge helper estimates each player's chance to score.

The basics

On each NHL game day Tims posts a contest with three sets of players (usually 13 to 15 players per set).
You pick one player from each set, once per game day. Once you submit, your picks are locked in.
A pick earns a point if that player scores a goal in his game. Overtime goals count; shootout goals do not.
Picks lock when games start, so make them before puck drop.
The game is played in the Tims app. Check the app for current prizes and official rules.

Picking well

Goals are rare events, so even the best pick scores well under half the time. Useful things to look at on the daily picks page:

Goals per game and shots per game — shooters score more.
Power-play time — players on the first power-play unit get extra chances.
The opponent — teams that allow more goals per game make easier matchups.
Recent form — goals in the last 5 games, though small samples are noisy.

What does "Goal %" mean?

Goal % is our estimate of the chance a player scores at least one goal in tonight's game — the same idea as an "anytime goal scorer" probability. If a player shows 40%, we think he scores in roughly 4 of every 10 games like this one. The tables are sorted by Goal % so the best pick in each set is at the top. Opp GAA is the goals-against average of the opponent's likely starting goalie (the one with the most starts this season); if we can't find one we show the opponent's team goals against per game instead.

How our "chance to score" works

For each player we estimate the expected number of goals in tonight's game, then convert it to the probability of scoring at least once.

Blend three rates. This season's goals per game, the last 10 games, and a prior built from last season and career numbers. Early in the season the prior carries most of the weight, so one hot game does not dominate. By about 30 games the current season gets its full weight.
Adjust for the opponent. We blend the opponent's likely starting goalie's goals-against average with the team's goals against per game, and compare that with the league average (limited to a modest range so one bad team does not distort things).
Small home-ice bump. A few percent up at home, a few down on the road.
Convert to a probability. Chance = 1 − e^{−expected goals}, the standard Poisson estimate of scoring at least one.

The player with the highest chance in each set gets the Best pick badge, and we list the top three. The base numbers come from public NHL statistics; line combinations, power-play units, injuries and goalie starts are layered on top where we have them (see below). It is an estimate, not a guarantee, and you should check the lineups before you lock in.

Lines, power plays, injuries and goalies

Where available we show each player's even-strength line (F1 to F4 for forwards, D1 to D3 for defence) and power-play unit (PP1 or PP2), flag players who are injured or day-to-day, and use the opponent's confirmed or projected starting goalie. Players on the top power-play unit and top lines get a modest boost; fourth-line forwards and third-pair defencemen get a small penalty; day-to-day players are discounted; players listed as out show OUT instead of a percentage and are never the Best pick. This information comes from DailyFaceoff and RotoWire and can change right up to puck drop, so always check the app.

Where the stats come from

Player and team stats come from NHL.com's public data and are refreshed regularly. The contest sets mirror what Tims shows in its app. See the feed status page to check whether today's contest has been loaded.

Hockey Challenge Picks is an independent fan site, not affiliated with Tim Hortons, Boom Fantasy or the NHL.